A Convex Framework for Epidemic Control in Networks

With networks becoming pervasive, research attention on dynamics of epidemic models in networked populations has increased. While a number of well understood epidemic spreading models have been developed, little to no attention has been paid to epidemic control strategies; beyond heuristics usually based on network centrality measures. Since epidemic control resources are typically limited, the problem of optimally allocating resources to control an outbreak becomes of interest. Existing literature considered homogeneous networks, limited the discussion to undirected networks, and largely proposed network centrality-based resource allocation strategies. In this thesis, we consider the well-known Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible spreading model and study the problem of minimum cost resource allocation to control an epidemic outbreak in a networked population. First, we briefly present a heuristic that outperforms network centrality-based algorithms on a stylized version of the problem previously studied in the literature. We then solve the epidemic control problem via a convex optimization framework on weighted, directed networks comprising heterogeneous nodes. Based on our spreading model, we express the problem of controlling an epidemic outbreak in terms of spectral conditions involving the Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue. This enables formulation of the epidemic control problem as a Geometric Program (GP), for which we derive a convex characterization guaranteeing existence of an optimal solution. We consider two formulations of the epidemic control problem -- the first seeks an optimal vaccine and antidote allocation strategy given a constraint on the rate at which the epidemic comes under control. The second formulation seeks to find an optimal allocation strategy given a budget on the resources. The solution framework for both formulations also allows for control of an epidemic outbreak on networks that are not necessarily strongly connected. The thesis further proposes a fully distributed solution to the epidemic control problem via a Distributed Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) algorithm. Our distributed solution enables each node to locally compute its optimum allocation of vaccines and antidotes needed to collectively globally contain the spread of an outbreak, via local exchange of information with its neighbors. Contrasting previous literature, our problem is a constrained optimization problem associated with a directed network comprising non-identical agents. For the different problem formulations considered, illustrations that validate our solutions are presented. This thesis, in sum, proposes a paradigm shift from heuristics towards a convex framework for contagion control in networked populations

Controllability and Fraction of Leaders in Infinite Network

In this paper, we study controllability of a network of linear single-integrator agents when the network size goes to infinity. We first investigate the effect of increasing size by injecting an input at every node and requiring that network controllability Gramian remain well-conditioned with the increasing dimension. We provide theoretical justification to the intuition that high degree nodes pose a challenge to network controllability. In particular, the controllability Gramian for the networks with bounded maximum degrees is shown to remain well-conditioned even as the network size goes to infinity. In the canonical cases of star, chain and ring networks, we also provide closed-form expressions which bound the condition number of the controllability Gramian in terms of the network size. We next consider the effect of the choice and number of leader nodes by actuating only a subset of nodes and considering the least eigenvalue of the Gramian as the network size increases. Accordingly, while a directed star topology can never be made controllable for all sizes by injecting an input just at a fraction $f<1$ of nodes; for path or cycle networks, the designer can actuate a non-zero fraction of nodes and spread them throughout the network in such way that the least eigenvalue of the Gramians remain bounded away from zero with the increasing size. The results offer interesting insights on the challenges of control in large networks and with high-degree nodes.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, to appear in 2014 IEEE CD

Optimal Vaccine Allocation to Control Epidemic Outbreaks in Arbitrary Networks

We consider the problem of controlling the propagation of an epidemic outbreak in an arbitrary contact network by distributing vaccination resources throughout the network. We analyze a networked version of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic model when individuals in the network present different levels of susceptibility to the epidemic. In this context, controlling the spread of an epidemic outbreak can be written as a spectral condition involving the eigenvalues of a matrix that depends on the network structure and the parameters of the model. We study the problem of finding the optimal distribution of vaccines throughout the network to control the spread of an epidemic outbreak. We propose a convex framework to find cost-optimal distribution of vaccination resources when different levels of vaccination are allowed. We also propose a greedy approach with quality guarantees for the case of all-or-nothing vaccination. We illustrate our approaches with numerical simulations in a real social network

Optimal Resource Allocation for Network Protection Against Spreading Processes

We study the problem of containing spreading processes in arbitrary directed networks by distributing protection resources throughout the nodes of the network. We consider two types of protection resources are available: (i) Preventive resources able to defend nodes against the spreading (such as vaccines in a viral infection process), and (ii) corrective resources able to neutralize the spreading after it has reached a node (such as antidotes). We assume that both preventive and corrective resources have an associated cost and study the problem of finding the cost-optimal distribution of resources throughout the nodes of the network. We analyze these questions in the context of viral spreading processes in directed networks. We study the following two problems: (i) Given a fixed budget, find the optimal allocation of preventive and corrective resources in the network to achieve the highest level of containment, and (ii) when a budget is not specified, find the minimum budget required to control the spreading process. We show that both resource allocation problems can be solved in polynomial time using Geometric Programming (GP) for arbitrary directed graphs of nonidentical nodes and a wide class of cost functions. Furthermore, our approach allows to optimize simultaneously over both preventive and corrective resources, even in the case of cost functions being node-dependent. We illustrate our approach by designing optimal protection strategies to contain an epidemic outbreak that propagates through an air transportation network

HMM-Based Characterization of Channel Behavior for Networked Control Systems

We study the problem of characterizing the behavior of lossy and data corrupting communication channels in a networked control setting, where the channel\u27s behavior exhibits temporal correlation. We propose a behavior characterization mechanism based on a hidden Markov model (HMM). The use of a HMM in this regard presents multiple challenges including dealing with incomplete observation sequences (due to data losses and corruptions) and the lack of a priori information about the model complexity (number of states in the model). We address the first challenges by using the plant state information and history of received/applied control inputs to fill in the gaps in the observation sequences, and by enhancing the HMM learning algorithm to deal with missing observations . Further, we adopt two model quality criteria for determining behavior model complexity. The contributions of this paper include: (1) an enhanced learning algorithm for refining the HMM model parameters to handle missing observations, and (2) simultaneous use of two well-defined model quality criteria to determine the model complexity. Simulation results demonstrate over 90\% accuracy in predicting the output of a channel at a given time step, when compared to a traditional HMM based model that requires complete knowledge of the model complexity and observation sequence